After years of overlapping shocks, the Polish real estate market has found a new normal, shaping how investors, developers, and lenders approach deals, pricing, and risk, according to Dentons Warsaw Partner Bartlomiej Kordeczka.
“Market participants are constantly seeking forecasts that are ‘almost certainly’ right, but in today’s economic and geopolitical environment, too many factors make predictability far more difficult,” Kordeczka points out. “Since 2020, we have experienced so many events and circumstances that would normally be spread over a few decades, but instead they were compressed into a five-year period and occurred almost all at once. It was a difficult but instructive lesson in how quickly external shocks can reshape markets. In 2023, many expected a return to 2019 levels by 2024, while in 2024, the hope shifted to 2025. Now, in 2026, it is clear that setting target dates no longer makes sense. In my view, markets are close to where they will remain in the coming years. The focus is shifting away from bold forecasts and record-breaking years toward the number of transactions and sustainable activity, as the old investment cycle is unlikely to return in its previous form.”
“When people ask why we no longer see the very large deals of the past, I am not sure that this is the right question,” Kordeczka continues. “There are no real structural obstacles. Investors are focused on quality and returns, not just scale. The main challenge is psychological: sellers expect higher prices, buyers aim lower, and banks sit in between. At the same time, banks are active, financing is available, and lending terms continue to improve. This is why the market remains dynamic.”
Kordeczka stresses that demand for leasing space in offices and other sectors remains strong in Poland. “Offices, once declared ‘dead’ after the pandemic, have made a strong comeback,” he notes. “In cities like Warsaw, demand has returned, and the key issue today is limited supply. Many developers moved into residential projects during the ‘office is over’ period, which helped them survive but also reduced available office stock. As a result, companies must plan well in advance, leading to more lease renewals and decisions to stay put rather than compromise on location.”
“Retail tells a similar story,” Kordeczka adds. “Like offices, it was written off after the pandemic, yet large shopping center transactions are being closed, and new deals are already in the pipeline. We are also observing a new trend: instead of being abandoned, some large retail assets are being converted to alternative uses. Residential for sale is booming, and alternative assets such as student housing are growing strongly, especially in major university cities. PRS remains important, but it has not become the single sector that would drive the market, largely due to currency and financing mismatches. Logistics, once the hottest segment, has cooled somewhat.”
One of the most important developments in 2025, according to Kordeczka, was the rise of domestic capital. “Polish investors became active in 2024, and this trend intensified in 2025. At the same time, capital flows have become more regional, with less coming from Western Europe. That said, we are starting to hear renewed interest from France, the UK, and the US, likely through smaller, step-by-step investments.”
Overall, “the outlook is positive,” Kordeczka notes. “Deals are more complex than they were 15 years ago, but the market is adjusting. Participants are talking, structures are evolving, and returns can increasingly be built through rental growth rather than yield compression. The direction is right, and the market is moving toward a new, more stable normal.”
